Tutorial: Distribution-Free Predictive Uncertainty Quantification

Strengths and Limits of Conformal Prediction

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Margaux Zaffran and Aymeric Dieuleveut gave an overview of techniques (including split conformal prediction, full conformal prediction, and Jackknife+) for doing predictive uncertainty quantification with minimal assumptions (requiring exchangeable, but not necessarily independent and identically distributed, data).

In addition to the theoretical foundations, they also covered two case studies — regression on noisy medical images and time-series regression on energy prices — to show how these techniques could be applied.

Margaux Zaffran presenting to the audience, in front of a slide about Adaptive Conformal Inference

The slides for the tutorial can be found here (large PDF, can take a while to load).